美银研究：AI资本开支超预期50%而收入仅超预期20%
美银新研究指出，今年AI资本开支超出预测50%，而收入仅超出预测20%，这一错配贯穿其整体分析。研究显示超大规模云厂商加权平均资本成本从2023年的4%升至10%，无风险利率较疫情低点高出4%以上，债务成本、股权成本和beta均上升。
Bank of America’s new research finds AI capital spending running 50% above forecasts this year while revenue runs only 20% above, and that mismatch drives the rest of its analysis.
Hyperscalers’ weighted average cost of capital has risen from 4% in 2023 to 10%, as risk-free rates sit more than 4% above pandemic lows and debt costs, equity costs and betas have all climbed.
The BoA research still projects capex for the top 5 hyperscalers plus neoclouds at $956B in 2026, $1.32T in 2027 and $1.5T in 2028, which works out to growth of 38% and then 14%.
Its demand math puts 212GW of new data center capacity between 2026 and 2030 at about $9.5T, $2.1T above the current $7.4T capex forecast.
来源：rohanpaul_ai · x.com