SpaceX 凭双重收入路径抢占 AI 算力市场

$SPCX isn't just building compute faster than every other neocloud

It has something none of them have: OPTIONALITY on every GPU it deploys

Every GW SpaceX brings online has two paths to revenue:

1. use it for Grok / xAI and capture the frontier model economics themselves, which generates more revenue than renting it out (Semianalysis estimates around $100B/GW)

2. rent it out to everyone else, at a premium

The reason SpaceX can rent out their compute at a premium is twofold:

1. Speed. SpaceX builds faster than anyone on earth, so they can get compute into customers' hands faster than any competitor. AI labs that need compute NOW pay up for that

2. The backstop. SpaceX can sign short-term contracts at higher prices because if a customer backs out, that compute simply goes to their own AI models. No empty racks, no panic

CoreWeave and Nebius can't take that risk, so they lock in most long-term deals at lower rents and fund the buildout with debt

Which brings us to funding, which is where the gap between these companies gets even wider

SpaceX doesn't have to fund the buildout (or the interest costs) from compute revenue alone. Starlink and launch cash flows can carry part of it. CoreWeave is paying 15% on unsecured bonds right now while SpaceX has diversified revenue streams across the whole company (and the best capital raiser alive running it)

And the part almost nobody is pricing in: as compute moves to space in the next few years, SpaceX owns the cheapest path to win there too. The rockets that bring the compute up AND the connectivity that beams it back down

That's why the chart above looks the way it does. Bloomberg Intelligence models SpaceX's AI ROIC going from negative 4% in 2026 to ~25% by 2030, above AWS and Google Cloud, while the pure neoclouds stay stuck in single digits

No one is better positioned to dominate the compute business in the coming years than SpaceX

This is why I still believe SpaceX is undervalued and why I've made it a core holding in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can see my entire real-time portfolio here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z