Chollet：AI进展呈指数增长但资本开支超指数，行业需闭合资源循环
Chollet 指出 2023-2026 期间多数 AI 进展指标高度符合指数增长，而同期 AI 资本开支略呈超指数增长，即增速本身在上升。他据此把 AI 建模为以投入换进展的系统，认为其响应略呈次线性；但外部资源的超指数投入长期不可持续，AI 行业要维持指数级进展，就需要获得与之匹配的指数级利润，闭合资源循环。
Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential over the 2023-2026 period. Meanwhile AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential (i.e. the rate of growth itself is increasing).
So if you model AI as a system that takes as input external investment and outputs AI progress, that system has a slightly sub-linear response.
But super-exponential injection of *external* resources is not sustainable in the long-term. To achieve sustained exponential progress, the AI industry will need to achieve matching exponential profits -- it will need to close the resource loop.
来源：fchollet · x.com