IMF 最新预测：AI 模型未计入额外生产率增长，AI 萧条损失约为繁荣收益两倍
IMF 发布最新预测，其模型假设 AI 不带来额外生产率增长，报告发现尽管特定任务有收益，整体经济数据在工资、就业或测得生产率上仍显示影响甚微。报告指出 AI 硬件贸易额自 2019 年以来约增长两倍，主要因价格上涨而非出货量增加，台湾和韩国占净出口 62%，美国和中国占净进口超 75%；存储芯片成本上升已在部分发达经济体推高核心商品通胀。
The IMF just published its latest forecasts and it assume no extra productivity growth from AI, and the report finds that economy-wide data still show little effect on wages, jobs or measured productivity, despite gains on specific tasks.
> The surge in AI hardware trade comes mostly from higher prices rather than more units shipped, and rising memory chip costs are already pushing up core-goods inflation in some rich economies.
> In the IMF’s models, an AI bust costs the world economy almost twice what an AI boom adds: 1.1% of output lost by 2028, against 0.6% gained by 2029.
> AI hardware trade has roughly tripled in value since 2019 because prices rose, not because more was shipped, with Taiwan and Korea supplying 62% of net exports and the US and China taking over 75% of net imports.
来源：rohanpaul_ai · x.com