karinanguyen· @karinanguyen · X·· 4 小时前AI 评分
前沿 AI 智能体参与中期选举预测基准测试
研究团队正在开展一项实时基准测试，评估前沿 AI 能否预测美国中期选举。每个智能体拥有独立沙箱、互联网访问权限和 $500 预算，每日根据新证据更新预测，选举后将与顶尖超级预测者、选举评论员及 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的群体判断比较准确率。
We are running a live benchmark to see if frontier AI can predict the midterm elections!
Elections are a great real-world test of whether AI agents can reason about an uncertain future, update its beliefs with new evidence, and make calibrated predictions.
We gave each agent its own sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget. Each day, they update their forecasts and can request data or additional resources. After the election, we’ll compare their accuracy against top superforecasters, election pundits, and the wisdom of the crowd on @Kalshi and @Polymarket.
来源：karinanguyen · x.com