Johnson Matthey 预测 2026 年钌需求 119.3 万盎司，超过 97.7 万盎司的一次供应

R to @SemiAnalysis_: Demand already exceeds supply, even with chemicals, its largest end market, in a downturn. Johnson Matthey expects demand of 1.193 million ounces against primary supply of 977,000 ounces in 2026. Chemical demand is forecast to fall 16%, largely because Chinese nylon producers have built too much capacity. That weakness helps explain why the price has not risen further. Some producers have switched catalysts, but chemical demand has recovered from past downturns, and we expect another recovery. Electronics demand grew from 300,000 ounces in 2023 to 413,000 in 2025, with 435,000 forecast for 2026. Datacenter expansion is expected to lift ruthenium demand in hard drives to a five-year high this year. Conventional drives use small amounts of the metal, so higher prices add little to their cost. We expect datacenter storage to keep expanding and new chip applications to accelerate ruthenium demand. A recovery in chemicals would add to that growth. (4/5)

来源：X：SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) · x.lingyaoai.com